Gary Ablett is aiming to become part of an elusive club of triple Brownlow medalists, joining the likes of Hayden Bunton Senior, Dick Reynolds, Ian Stewart and the great Bob Skilton. What is more jaw dropping is the fact that he is still in contention having not played a senior game since Round 16.
Arguably the greatest player of all time, certainly in his era, Gary Ablett was cruelly robbed of the opportunity to lead his Gold Coast Suns into their first ever final series after succumbing to a left shoulder injury that required reconstructive surgery against the Pies just over a month ago. Unfortunately, without their talisman, the Suns have fallen away swiftly and look destined to miss the finals due to a poor percentage and tricky run home.
Can Gaz really win the Brownlow without playing the last 7 rounds of the season? absolutely, and here is why;
After analysing each game of each round from a data perspective, Sportonometrics has given this years contenders a points tally range at the completion of round 20 and the results are somewhat surprising.
Standings After Round 20:
1. Gary Ablett (GCS) 28-31 votes
2. Nathan Fyfe (FRE) 27-30 votes
3. Joel Selwood (GEL) 21-24 votes
4. Scott Pendlebury (COL) 20-23 votes
5. Josh Kennedy (SYD): 19-22 votes
With Nathan Fyfe ineligible, it seems as though if anybody is going to catch Ablett, they are going to need to poll in at least two, if not three of the remaining games and poll well. It appears that Josh Kennedy and Joel Selwood have suffered the curse of having too many team mates take votes off them this season. This will be an enjoyable sight from a coaches perspective, as an even contribution is what is required to win Premierships (case in point being flag favourites Hawthorn not having any players in Bownlow discussions).
In terms of the bolters, it will be interesting to see if Tom Rockliff's incredible season is rewarded by the umpires given his teams poor win loss record. Dayne Beams, Dyson Heppell and Matt Priddis should also poll well following some stand out performances this season.
Sportonometrics Prediction: Fyfe to win the count, Gaz to walk away with the medal.
Arguably the greatest player of all time, certainly in his era, Gary Ablett was cruelly robbed of the opportunity to lead his Gold Coast Suns into their first ever final series after succumbing to a left shoulder injury that required reconstructive surgery against the Pies just over a month ago. Unfortunately, without their talisman, the Suns have fallen away swiftly and look destined to miss the finals due to a poor percentage and tricky run home.
Can Gaz really win the Brownlow without playing the last 7 rounds of the season? absolutely, and here is why;
After analysing each game of each round from a data perspective, Sportonometrics has given this years contenders a points tally range at the completion of round 20 and the results are somewhat surprising.
Standings After Round 20:
1. Gary Ablett (GCS) 28-31 votes
2. Nathan Fyfe (FRE) 27-30 votes
3. Joel Selwood (GEL) 21-24 votes
4. Scott Pendlebury (COL) 20-23 votes
5. Josh Kennedy (SYD): 19-22 votes
With Nathan Fyfe ineligible, it seems as though if anybody is going to catch Ablett, they are going to need to poll in at least two, if not three of the remaining games and poll well. It appears that Josh Kennedy and Joel Selwood have suffered the curse of having too many team mates take votes off them this season. This will be an enjoyable sight from a coaches perspective, as an even contribution is what is required to win Premierships (case in point being flag favourites Hawthorn not having any players in Bownlow discussions).
In terms of the bolters, it will be interesting to see if Tom Rockliff's incredible season is rewarded by the umpires given his teams poor win loss record. Dayne Beams, Dyson Heppell and Matt Priddis should also poll well following some stand out performances this season.
Sportonometrics Prediction: Fyfe to win the count, Gaz to walk away with the medal.
Image Source: Getty Images/Michael Dodge