MVP voting has always been a topic of hot debate. The award is voted by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters, all of whom have their own personal method for making their selections. As is the common argument amongst basketball fans, what variables are the most important and how do you place a value on them?
Method One - Advanced Analytics
Analytics, of which is going through an accelerated growth period in professional sports, is a non emotional illustration of the situation. However, there is still a large grey area in existence. Why? simple. You can model data and assign weightings in an infinite number of ways.
Below is an advanced statistics table (sourced from http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2015_advanced.html) that presents the top 5 candidates performance based around advanced analytics. Stat leaders are highlighted for each category.
Method One - Advanced Analytics
Analytics, of which is going through an accelerated growth period in professional sports, is a non emotional illustration of the situation. However, there is still a large grey area in existence. Why? simple. You can model data and assign weightings in an infinite number of ways.
Below is an advanced statistics table (sourced from http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2015_advanced.html) that presents the top 5 candidates performance based around advanced analytics. Stat leaders are highlighted for each category.
Anthony Davis notched up the most category wins, closely followed by Steph Curry. Most surprisingly however, Lebron James did not top a single category. The higher complexity statistics that in theory carry a heavier weighting include WS/48, BPM and VORP, of which Curry achieved the highest overall ranking.
Method Two - Behavioural Criteria
Perhaps more commonly used is the behavioural criteria method. This is a set of simple questions we ask ourselves based on our individual and behavioural values of which we apply our own instinctual weighting. Some of the common questions raised include;
This could the most closely contested MVP race in some time, we have made two picks based on both methods.
Sportonometrics Predicts;
Advanced Analytics Method - Stephen Curry
Behavioural Criteria Method - Stephen Curry
Method Two - Behavioural Criteria
Perhaps more commonly used is the behavioural criteria method. This is a set of simple questions we ask ourselves based on our individual and behavioural values of which we apply our own instinctual weighting. Some of the common questions raised include;
- Which candidate plays for the team with the best record?
- Which team would incur the largest output decline if the candidate were not playing?
- Which candidate offers the most intangible value to their team (e.g. leadership, intensity)?
- Which candidate has had the most productive season overall?
This could the most closely contested MVP race in some time, we have made two picks based on both methods.
Sportonometrics Predicts;
Advanced Analytics Method - Stephen Curry
Behavioural Criteria Method - Stephen Curry